Did Pope Leo signal action on the Vatican's China deal?
“I take heart from Pope Leo’s prayer for the Church in China and that he referenced Pope Benedict XVI’s letter on China which sets out the Church’s first principles and redlines.”
(PerMariam) — Recent comments by Pope Leo XIV about the need for China’s Catholics to be in “communion” with the universal Church have given hope to some experts that the American Pope might effect a marked change in relations to Beijing, in contrasted with his predecessor.
At this early stage in Pope Leo XIV’s pontificate, Vatican analysts and Curial officials are all paying close attention to his every word and action, eager to discern clues as to how his pontificate might play out.
Leo has arrived to the papal throne with a large number of pressing issues at his desk, not least of which is the highly controversial Sino-Vatican deal. Described by Hong Kong’s emeritus Cardinal Joseph Zen as a “betrayal” of China’s Catholics, the deal was first signed in 2018 and has been renewed ever since, most recently last September for a four year term.
Pope Francis approved the deal and gave consistent support to it, much to the distress of many observers, including clergy and China experts. His Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin is widely understood to be the key architect of the deal, and has gone to bat for it on numerous occasions when questioned about it.
The pope apparently maintains veto power, although in practice it is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that has control, as has been evidenced on numerous occasions, including in recent weeks. It also allegedly allows for the removal of legitimate bishops to be replaced by CCP-approved bishops.
So controversial and disastrous has the deal proved that it became a leading topic of conversation in the pre-conclave General Congregations amongst cardinals, to the detriment of the papal hopes of Cdl. Parolin. This is believed to have been principally due to Raymond Cardinal Burke who took to the floor in front of the College of Cardinals to condemn the deal, and urge the new pope to take urgent action on it.
Perhaps Leo has taken this to heart?
After his Regina Caeli address on May 25, Leo XIV highlighted the May 24 feast of Our Lady of Sheshan, the Mother of China, which is also a day set aside by Pope Benedict XVI as one of special prayer for the oft-persecuted Catholics in China. The Pope stated:
Also yesterday, on the liturgical Memorial of the Blessed Virgin Mary Help of Christians, we celebrated the Day of Prayer for the Church in China, established by Pope Benedict XVI.
In churches and shrines throughout China and around the world, prayers were offered to God as a sign of concern and affection for Chinese Catholics and their communion with the universal Church. May the intercession of Mary Most Holy obtain for them, and for us, the grace to be strong and joyful witnesses of the Gospel, even in the midst of trials, so that we may always promote peace and harmony.
In the delicate world of Vatican diplomacy words are paramount, and Leo’s address certainly appears poignant. His prayer for China’s Catholics to be in “communion with the universal Church” is in direct contradiction to the “Sinicization” aims of Communist China.
Indeed, such comments coming straight on the back of his praise of a Polish priest martyred for his resistance to Communist authorities is even more poignant.
China experts warn that Sinicization involves having “all religious communities be led by the Party, controlled by the Party, and support the Party” – thus at its core, Sinicization ultimately leads to a rejection of Catholicism and an acceptance of Communist ideologies.
Signs of change?
So is Leo’s May 25 address signaling a change in tack?
Opining on the import of his words, Nina Shea suggested that Leo’s remarks are a sign of hope.
“Yes, I take heart from Pope Leo’s prayer for the Church in China and that he referenced Pope Benedict XVI’s letter on China which sets out the Church’s first principles and redlines,” she told this correspondent.
Shea – director of Center for Religious Freedom at the Hudson Institute – added that “it is hopeful that he has spoken of concern for that Church and that his prayer acknowledged that the Church is ‘in the midst of trials,’ after years’ long coverup and silence by the Vatican diplomats.”
She also highlighted the priority the Sino-Vatican deal had during the conclave decisions, and thus what awareness Leo will have of it:
The Vatican-China deal seems to have been a consideration in the surprising election of Pope Leo and not of the purported front runner, Cardinal Parolin, who is the architect of the deal with Beijing. It feels like this could be a watershed moment, one where there’s a rethinking of the Vatican’s policy of yielding to China even the most important papal powers, namely the ordaining and appointing of bishops, and authority on religious matters.
This sentiment was shared by another China expert consulted by PerMariam. Leo’s approach to the Sino-Vatican deal was described as a perfect opportunity to “read the tea leaves” especially in a pope about whom relatively little is known:
One such issue is China, where the controversial “secret accord” between the Vatican and the Chinese government has sparked ongoing debate. This agreement was not only a point of contention during the Conclave that elected Pope Leo, but it also played a role in the rejection of a leading papal contender who had been closely associated with the policy.
In this context, even something as mundane as Pope Leo ordering wonton soup from his new cook is likely to invite speculation.
The expert – who for reasons of prudence is publicly identified only as a close observer of the Vatican and China policy – welcomed Leo’s words on May 25 as “especially noteworthy”:
Given the Vatican’s virtual silence in the face of severe persecution of the Church in China—including the imprisonment of Jimmy Lai, arguably the most prominent Catholic layman under the regime—and ongoing restrictions on religious freedom, Pope Leo’s recent remarks are especially noteworthy.
His prayer for the faithful in China and for “their communion with the universal Church” stands out, particularly because it directly counters Xi Jinping’s ‘sinicization’ campaign, which aims to sever such ties. This may signal a shift in tone, policy, or priorities from the Vatican.
Action or merely words?
The Sino-Vatican deal in part effectively sought to retroactively approve the actions of the schismatic state-church in China and bring it in line with Rome. But the local bishops’ conference and episcopal bodies remain in schism, refusing the authority of the pope, and the Communist policy of Sinicization remains in full force. “Communion” therefore is desperately needed.
But for one leading China expert, it remains too early to ascertain Leo’s position on China.
“Like Pope Francis before him, Pope Leo is reinforcing Pope Benedict XVI’s initiative by encouraging global Catholic participation in this day of prayer,” said Steven Mosher, President of the Population Research Institute.
“Similarly, he is emphasizing the unity of Chinese Catholics with the universal Church and avoiding direct references to sensitive issues like the arrests of figures such as Cardinal Zen and Jimmy Lai,” he told this correspondent.
“Will Pope Leo prioritize the secret Vatican-China Agreement on bishop appointments, even though the Chinese authorities have repeatedly violated it? Will he avoid directly mentioning the persecution of the underground Church, which Benedict’s prayer initiative implicitly supported? It’s too early to tell.”
Mosher is a leading voice in calling for the Vatican to repeal its deal with Beijing, and as a valued China analyst on a wide variety of networks his assessment is not to be disregarded.
Perhaps on Leo’s approach to the Sino-Vatican deal, like with much else in the young pontificate, Catholics ought to be cautiously optimistic while not ceasing appropriate prayer and action.
Vatican silence harms Catholics
Yet without doubt, urgent action is needed. Commenting on the deal, Cardinal Dominik Duka O.P. told Vaticanist Nico Spuntoni that:
I think the situation there needs to change too. The situation in China reminds me of what happened in Eastern Europe during the communist era. Casaroli's Ostpolitik was not positive. At best, it may have prevented the worst of the persecution, but it also stopped the Church from growing beyond the Iron Curtain.
Sources close to the situation in China have attested to this correspondent that the deal has only worsened the plight of China’s Catholics, a fact attested to by numerous watchdogs and political oversight bodies.
Indeed, this increased persecution has been recorded as a direct result of the disastrous deal. In its 2020 report, the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China wrote that the persecution witnessed is “of an intensity not seen since the Cultural Revolution.”
Last May, Cdl. Duka – who endured persecution and imprisonment at the hands of the Communists in the 1970’s and 80’s – warned that:
Just as silence and complicity with the communist regime damaged my country and made it easier for the government to imprison dissidents, the Church’s silence in the face of human rights abuses by Communist China harms Catholic life in China.
Human Rights Watch and China Aid have already made calls for the Pope to urgently address the Sino-Vatican deal, warning of the dangers of increased persecution for Catholics in the nation.
During the papal interregnum China moved to “elect” two bishops, appearing to show a continued rejection of the Holy See’s role in the process. There was much furor over the matter, and over two weeks later Cdl. Parolin attested – in an apparent face-saving move – that Beijing had acted in accord with the Holy See on the issue. The two prelates, Parolin said, “had already been approved by Pope Francis.”
Leo XIV temporarily re-instated all the heads of the Roman Curia, meaning that for now Parolin will continue in his role as Secretary of State. Depending on whether Leo replaces him soon, or allows him to remain, will have a key impact on the Leonine pontificate’s response to Beijing.
Indeed, regardless of Leo XIV’s intentions regarding the future of the Sino-Vatican deal, progress will likely be difficult as China experts and Vatican sources have warned about the reach of Beijing, and the strong influence of China even within the Vatican.